DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...

NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SEWD INTO AZ
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIGGING FURTHER INTO SRN NM/NRN
MEXICO BY 13/12Z. THIS INTENSIFYING TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE KICKING NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING FEATURE...PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE
LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD CERTAINLY
APPROACH THE LOWER 50S TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING DRY LINE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FREE PARCEL ASCENT AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS FAR WEST TX NEAR
THE NM BORDER...TO THE SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT INTO THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH TIME...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AS LLJ IMPINGES ON WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...AND LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH TIME...AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS INITIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THIS REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO ONGOING MODIFICATION.

.DARROW.. 04/11/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.