MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0455

ACUS11 KWNS 111716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111716
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-111815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN-ERN MS INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111716Z - 111815Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN-ERN MS INTO NRN AL AND
MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE A WW THIS AFTERNOON.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN MS IS
BECOMING UNCAPPED GIVEN SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AND WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 100 KT WLY MID
LEVEL JET NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY NWD FROM CENTRAL MS/NRN AL ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. VIS/IR IMAGERY INDICATED CU INCREASING
IN VERTICAL DEPTH SWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN MS. HOWEVER...WEAKER
DEEP LAYER ASCENT THIS FAR S AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST ANY
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT.

BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS
NERN-EAST CENTRAL MS INTO NWRN AL WHERE TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY
GREATER WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND EXIST ALONG SRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ANY THAT CAN SUSTAIN A MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT.

.PETERS.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

32088742 31918843 32428990 34418915 35818840 35928653
34918603 32408617

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