SWODY2
SPC AC 171726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT REGARDING PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE
LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF MT/WY AS EXIT REGION
OF UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO ERN WY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HEAT MARKEDLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE
OF THE MT/WY ROCKIES WHERE LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD APPROACH 9
C/KM. IN SITU MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LOW LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD
RETURN NWWD AS LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO ERN WY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE PROPENSITY TO
ROTATE...THOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
..EAST OF THE MS RIVER...
LOWER MS VALLEY SPEED MAX/TROUGH WILL EJECT QUICKLY EWD ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND DEAMPLIFY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER MI SAGS SWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN SCOURED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY MINIMIZED
AHEAD OF QUICK MOVING TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE
ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM SRN MS INTO THE NRN FL. HOWEVER
THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS MEAGER AT BEST.
FARTHER NORTH...A POCKET OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SOUTH ACROSS IL/IND INTO KY. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF DIGGING SPEED MAX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
STRONGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
.DARROW.. 04/17/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment