MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0512

ACUS11 KWNS 171747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171747
TXZ000-171945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S PLAINS OF W TX...LOW ROLLING PLAINS...NCNTRL
TX...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171747Z - 171945Z

..INCREASING SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTN...

17Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW NW OF KLBB WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E TO JUST S OF THE RED RVR VLY. DOUBLE STRUCTURE DRYLINE
EXTENDS S...BUT WILL CONSOLIDATE ALONG A LINE FROM JUST E OF
KLBB-KSWW-KJCT BY 20Z. THE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE
WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX BY LATE AFTN.

TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING VCNTY THE SFC LOW SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE
WHERE MORNING STRATUS DISSOLVED EARLIER. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
HIGH-BASED AND EXIST IN A LIGHTER FLOW REGIME ALOFT BENEATH THE UPR
LOW. EARLY INITIATION WILL LIKELY YIELD HAIL...OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TORNADO.

PRIMARY MOIST AXIS EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL TX AND WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING NWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND TOWARD WRN N TX LATER THIS
AFTN. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SFC TEMPS AOA 65 DEG F WILL
BE NEEDED FOR A SFC-BASED STORM...AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT SPREADS EWD.
VSBL SATL SHOWS BINOVC OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THE CINH SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 19-20Z. AS A
RESULT...STORMS UPSTREAM...AND OTHERS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ALONG
THE DRYLINE...WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO STRONGER TSTMS.

WLY SFC FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE TRANS-PECOS...INDICATIVE OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EJECTING EWD. THIS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM AND THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTN WILL
GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE PARTS OF NCNTRL TX BY LATE
AFTN...INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX. A STRONG CAP WILL EXIST
DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY WEAKENING AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. AT
THE VERY LEAST...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...BUT IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING/WEAKENING CINH CAN OCCUR...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR
WITH MORE SFC-BASED STORMS.

.RACY.. 04/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

34110184 33909915 33369720 32679671 31629660 31359764
31489864 32220072 32740214 33370256 33850240

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