DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110733
SWODY3
SPC AC 110731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO
THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY...

..SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY...
THE STRONG UPR LOW DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SW ON THU WILL BODILY
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRI/FRI NIGHT AS WEAKER
PERTURBATIONS EJECT NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AHEAD OF IT.
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRI
ACROSS OK EWD INTO THE OZARKS ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ENHANCED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
EARLY FRI MORNING.

THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH OF THE RED RVR DURING THE MORNING. BUT...AS LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD...STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NW TX AND
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM/MOIST
AIR NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MID-AFTN. AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES...SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
BACKBUILD SWD INTO THIS SLY LLJ AND ROOT INTO THE RICHER GULF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPSTREAM...A TRIPLE POINT WILL EVOLVE OVER
NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS BY
LATE AFTN.

ROUGHLY 60-70 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP THE SLY LLJ OF 45-50 KTS WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY VCNTY THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE INFLUX
OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS.

LATER IN THE EVENING...LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL TEND TO
BACK AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS...KINEMATIC SET-UP MAY
BEGIN FAVORING EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY. DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADOES...HOWEVER...
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE MORE
RICHER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS AND LA.

.RACY.. 04/11/2007

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