SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110719
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-110915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN AR...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN
LA...W-CENTRAL/NWRN MS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...
VALID 110719Z - 110915Z
BAND OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING POTENTIALLY SVR BOW ECHO OVER
DALLAS/CLEVELAND COUNTES AR AS OF 715Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
TOWARD MS RIVER WITH SOME BACKBUILDING LIKELY OVER SRN AR AND
PERHAPS NERN LA. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF WW AND OVER
PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN MS...WHERE SVR THREAT MAY BE MAINTAINED AND
ANOTHER WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN AR BETWEEN
TXK-PBF...PERHAPS COLLOCATED WITH BOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. SFC WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS NERN LA VICINITY MLU...TO NEAR
NEZ. WARM FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD 10-15 KT OVER NERN LA AND MORE
OF SWRN/W-CENTRAL MS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
ACROSS S-CENTRAL AR...SWWD OVER NWRN LA...WELL AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT IN NE TX. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING INVOF GRAVITY
WAVE BEHIND WHICH PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE WAS NOTED AROUND TYR
BETWEEN 5-6Z. VWP/PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AXIS OF
40-50 KT LLJ NEAR LFK-GLH LINE...WITH ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKELY ATOP WARM FRONTAL SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP
TO SUSTAIN MCS ACROSS SRN AR INTO WRN MS...WITH COMBINED
PROPAGATIONAL/TRANSLATIONAL COMPONENT PROBABLY TAKING MOST INTENSE
PART ESEWD TOWARD GLH-GWO REGION. FARTHER N...EXPECT WEAKER
INSTABILITY BUT STILL SOME SVR THREAT...AND FARTHER S...LARGER
BUOYANCY BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING.
.EDWARDS.. 04/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
33149364 33929324 34289247 34949156 34749042 33949003
33219006 32729075 32789194 32809245
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