SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110606
FLZ000-110800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS...FAR SERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FROM HST SWD.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 110606Z - 110800Z
DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS KEYS
THROUGH 8Z. WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BECAUSE OF LIMITED AREA AFFECTED
IN SPACE AND TIME. POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED WITH MOST
INTENSE CELLS OVER LOWER-MIDDLE KEYS...WHERE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS
IS SFC-BASED ALONG AND SW OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
AT 545Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER S FL CONVECTION WAS ANALYZED
FROM 40 SE HST WWD TO NEAR LOWER MATECUMBE KEY...THEN WNWWD ACROSS
FL BAY TO APPROXIMATELY 10 SSE CAPE SABLE. PORTION OF BOUNDARY OVER
AND N OF UPPER KEYS IS BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY...AND MAY RETREAT
SLIGHTLY NEWD THROUGH ISLAMORADA BEFORE BEING FORCED SWD AGAIN BY
OUTFLOW FROM CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER SWRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. BAND
OF TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS OF 545Z EXTENDS FROM
ABOUT 25 NNW EYW ACROSS MARQUESAS KEYS THEN SWWD. STRONGEST PORTION
MOVING EWD 25-30 KT WILL CROSS WRN FL BAY...PERHAPS REACHING
MIDDLE-UPPER KEYS IN 730-830Z TIME FRAME. CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND NEWER/TRAILING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM FL BAY CONVECTION ALSO MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS.
AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOWS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE...SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 70S AND DEW
POINTS MID 70S F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG FROM
MODIFIED EYW RAOB. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE EACH DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
NEWD INTO SRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HOWEVER OUTFLOW POOL FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY MAY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW STG GUSTS TO PENETRATE
TO SFC. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM EYW VWP SUPPORT MIXED
SUPERCELL/BOW MODE WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
40-450 KT.
.EDWARDS.. 04/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
24468210 24758190 24938187 25118092 25358048 25468026
25478016 25128038 24808078 24638118 24498187
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