MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0448

ACUS11 KWNS 110326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110325
FLZ000-110530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FLA KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110325Z - 110530Z

ISOLATED SVR WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLA KEYS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT OVER LAND.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER FAR SRN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY/MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE SWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO THE UPPER FLA KEYS.
MEANWHILE...RECENT VWP DATA FROM THE 88-D RADAR AT KEY WEST SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET /50 KTS/ CENTERED AROUND 1 KM.
THIS IS 20 KTS STRONGER THAN ANY SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE
INDICATED. WITH THIS STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE 00Z EYW SOUNDING /TO AROUND 300
M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH/. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED N-NE OF THE
DRY TORTUGAS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE/. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
PLACE...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR WEAK TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE SUPERCELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND MIDDLE/UPPER FLA KEYS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

.CROSBIE.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

25358027 25238070 25188139 24988173 24778182 24658092
24858038

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.