MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0449

ACUS11 KWNS 110425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110424
ARZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-110600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 110424Z - 110600Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH...NOW
SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND TAKE ON INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFICATION OF 500 MB JET STREAK /FROM 80
TO 100 KT/ DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND
DEEPENING OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF.

LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN A NARROW
TONGUE ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA. AND...LATEST RUC40 SUGGESTS THIS
IS BEING LIFTED ABOVE WARM FRONT INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVERNIGHT. THUS...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST
FOR EXPANSION...FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME...AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY NOT LIFT
NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY OCCUR NEAR GROWING HEAVY RAINFALL CORE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF LARGE
HAIL/LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

.KERR.. 04/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34219417 35619248 36329172 36209036 35729010 34429065
33549115 33079172 32979264 33169368 33399423

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