SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110936
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-111130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CDT WED APR 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN MS...NERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...
VALID 110936Z - 111130Z
SVR THREAT CONTINUES FOR REMAINING PORTIONS WW. BAND OF STG TSTMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EWD NEARLY 40 KT ACROSS NRN MS. SVR POTENTIAL MAY DIMINISH AS
ACTIVITY NEARS ERN EDGE WW -- OVER NERN MS -- MOVING FARTHER FROM
SFC WARM FRONT AND ATOP PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER/MORE STABLE NEAR-SFC
AIR MASS. MEANWHILE WW SHOULD BE CLEARED FROM W-E FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY.
BUOYANCY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FARTHER S ACROSS NERN LA AND W-CENTRAL MS. SOME POTENTIAL LINGERS
FOR ACTIVITY BACKBUILDING SWWD TOWARD SFC WARM FRONT OR ALONG
LEADING UNDULAR WAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN LA. HOWEVER...WITH
1. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF WARM FRONT --
AND TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD WITH TIME LEFTWARD OF LLJ AXIS -- AND
2. STRONG MUCINH THAT MAY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY ARE BECOMING MORE
CONDITIONAL WITH TIME.
.EDWARDS.. 04/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...
32179197 32989205 33259126 34299037 34988991 34878855
33838871 32958932 32918973 32048973 32059077 32409152
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