SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171959
TXZ000-OKZ000-172200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS...LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WRN N TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...
VALID 171959Z - 172200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151
CONTINUES.
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER KLBB WITH A DRYLINE SWD TO EAST
OF KMAF. A SECOND DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF KDYS SWD TO
EAST OF KJCT. A COLD POOL WAS EXPANDING SEWD FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN
N TX NEAR KSPS TO KDYS...THEN NWWD TO NEAR KLBB. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EWD FROM THE COLD POOL INTO NCNTRL TX.
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY THE SFC LOW OVER THE TX S PLAINS APPEAR
TO BE WEAKENING OWING TO EXPANDING COLD POOLS...DESTRUCTIVE STORM
SCALE INTERACTIONS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS THE STORMS WEAKEN.
WARM SECTOR ALONG/E OF THE ERN DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE EXPANDING
COLD POOL HAD WARMED INTO THE UPR 60S-LWR 70S WITH A SURGE OF SFC
DEW POINTS OF 57-62 DEG F AT 19Z. AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EWD...CINH WILL WEAKEN AND TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/NW OF KABI
WILL LIKELY GROW STRONGER. RECENT GUST TO 40 KTS AT KGDP SUGGESTS
THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS MID-LEVEL
JET PUNCHES EWD...SUPPORTING AN ISOLD SUPERCELL OR TWO. BUT...THE
PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD GENERALLY BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS/SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS AS COLD POOLS MERGE AND STORMS SEED NEIGHBORING STORMS.
GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF
HAIL WITH SOME STORMS.
THROUGH 21-22Z...THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED IN
THE KABI-KSEP-KBWD REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED THE MOST IN
THIS AREA AND WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR. IN
FACT...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM AS FAR S AS THE HILL COUNTRY. FARTHER
NE...AIR MASS MAY RECOVER SOME NEAR/W OF KFTW...SUPPORTING AN
INCREASING SVR RISK THERE LATER THIS AFTN.
.RACY.. 04/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
33940206 34440184 34669948 33809774 31879740 31059810
30829944 31160123 32060192 33070197
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