SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172222
TXZ000-172345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...
VALID 172222Z - 172345Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR REMAINING PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 151 CONTINUES. ANOTHER WW EAST OF WW 151 IS UNLIKELY UNLESS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.
LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM NRN PORTIONS OF N CNTRL TX SWD INTO
CNTRL TX NEAR SAN SABA MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 KT. OTHER STORMS
EXIST FARTHER S NEAR BLANCO. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY A
NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL SBCAPE LEFT AHEAD OF LINE WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER EXPERIENCED HEATING EARLIER TODAY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF N CNTRL AND CNTRL TX...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE
RESULTED IN A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO N CNTRL AND CNTRL TX
ALONG EWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX. STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL
SPREAD EAST ABOVE THE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SOME THREAT
FOR HAIL AND WIND MAY PERSIST EWD INTO PARTS OF N CNTRL AND CNTRL
TX. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL EAST OF WW 151.
.DIAL.. 04/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...
33419694 32499623 30599749 30279857 31379829 32119862
32799845 33309789
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