SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232103
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-232330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/FAR NWRN PA/FAR NERN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 232103Z - 232330Z
LINE OF STRONG-ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO WAS MOVING EWD
FROM 35-40 KTS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS SOUTH OF THE LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES
ACROSS WRN NY/FAR NWRN PA/FAR NERN OH BETWEEN 22-01Z. RELATIVELY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR
EVENT...THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LATEST VISIBLE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
LINE MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SERN ONTARIO JUST AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL VORT CENTER MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN GEORGIAN BAY. RECENT SFC OBS
WHERE THIS LINE HAS CROSSED HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN
40-50 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE /MUCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG/. DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE/ AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50 KTS AT 0.5 KM FROM
THE BUFFALO RADAR VWP/ INDICATE THAT SOME DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
THE SFC WITH THIS LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
BACKBUILDING OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY OCCUR AS INSTABILITY
AXIS IS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF
STORM MOTIONS WOULD TAKE THIS LINE ACROSS WRN NY BETWEEN 22-01Z.
.CROSBIE.. 04/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
43447741 43387834 42437921 41868052 41428075 41727896
42087767 42507725 43127685 43467696
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