SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232219
OKZ000-TXZ000-232315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 232219Z - 232315Z
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPING OVER MIDLAND COUNTY MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR AS IT MOVES NEWD AND EVENTUALLY ENEWD INTO MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION -- ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND
S OF WW 166 IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM JUST E LBB SSWWD ACROSS MIDLAND
AND TERRELL COUNTIES. THIS DRYLINE SHOULD MARK WRN BOUND OF SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT MAY RETREAT WWD TOWARD NM BORDER LATER THIS EVENING
AMIDST CONTINUING PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKING OF SFC FLOW. MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIR MASS OVER CORRIDOR BETWEEN SJT-CDS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG...SUPPORTED BY POCKETS OF
STG SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS LOW 60S F...AND 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. JTN PROFILER WINDS SHOW NEARLY STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH
CHARACTER INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE BOTH FROM RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS.
RIGHT-MOVING STORMS WILL CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
THEY MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENTS WITH TIME AND
WITH EWD EXTENT. 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH
200-300 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.
.EDWARDS.. 04/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
31060211 31840221 34290196 34339917 31259958
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