SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241813
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-241945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/NRN PORTIONS OF WRN AND
MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241813Z - 241945Z
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS NEAR WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION FOR LIMITED TORNADO THREAT.
LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA...S OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS NOW LOCATED JUST N OF
THE OH RIVER. DAYTIME HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...AND THUS EXPECT A
SLOW/CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THIS REGION.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO
BE A RELATIVE LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY LOW IN GENERAL. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WHILE WW IS NOT IMMINENT...AN INCREASE IN
STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT COULD REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.
.GOSS.. 04/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
38019050 37648877 37648708 38008629 37358528 36608522
35958682 36078980 36629081
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