SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242316
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN OK...NW TX.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 173...
VALID 242316Z - 250115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 173 CONTINUES.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE WRN ALFALFA TO ERN BLAINE TO ERN
TILLMAN COUNTY OK...WRN ARCHER COUNTY TX. EXPECT ONLY
LOCALIZED/ERRATIC DRYLINE MOTION NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS PRIMARY SFC
CYCLONE DIGS SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS TO OK PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE MAY LINGER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...STRONGER ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN N
OF AREA -- ACROSS CENTAL KS. TEMPORAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS
CLOSING FOR ROBUST HEATING BETWEEN OK/NW TX DRYLINE AND ANVIL CANOPY
FROM ERN OK MCS...AMIDST RAIN-COOLED AIR. VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ATTM. PER
COORDINATION W/OUN...AIR MASS E OF I-35 APPEARS TOO STABILIZED AND
NONCONVERGENT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SCHEDULED 1Z
WW EXPIRATION. FARTHER W...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE AT
PRESENT WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE.
AFTER 1Z...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OK
ONCE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING APCH...WITH SFC COLD
FRONT OVERTAKING DRYLINE AND MOVING INTO FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. THEREFORE THIS AREA WILL ME MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL WW LATER THIS EVENING.
.EDWARDS.. 04/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...
36999942 36999586 33879597 33909797 33479797 33399950
33839949 33909894 34209894 34199856 34519858 34499881
34879880 34889855 36149864 36149885 36579889
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