SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242344
TXZ000-250145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX...ADJACENT RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 179...
VALID 242344Z - 250145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 179 CONTINUES.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE NEAR LINE FROM 10 W FSI...30 E
DYS...25 E SJT...50 NW DRT. LOCALIZED/ERRATIC DRYLINE MOTION IS
POSSIBLE BUT LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING A COUPLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
-- IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM BWD AREA SWWD TO NRN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD ALONG DRYLINE THROUGH REMAINDER
VAL VERDE COUNTY INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN COAHUILA...AND MOVE EWD
ACROSS ERN PORTION WW. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
ALL ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPES...45-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND 0-1 KM
SRH AROUND 300 J/KG.
ADDITIONAL/SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED S OF 179 INVOF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. VERY INTENSE/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL WITH CYCLIC
MESOCYCLONES MAY BE PRODUCING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL
JUST W OF RIVER IN MEX AND WILL MOVE OVER EAGLE PASS VERY SHORTLY.
PROJECTED DEVIANT/RIGHTWARD MOTION TAKES THIS STORM S AND SE OF
EAGLE PASS REGION...ACROSS SRN PORTIONS MAVERICK COUNTY TOWARD WRN
DIMMIT AND NWRN WEBB COUNTY. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT DOWN
VALLEY...CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY
PAST ROUGHLY DIMMIT/WEBB COUNTY LINE.
.EDWARDS.. 04/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
29770163 30540089 31829933 32009849 31869569 31119579
30069767 29599830 29479809 29089839 29259877 28609877
28149929 27839964 27909998
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