DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291741
SWODY2
SPC AC 291739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SWRN
OK...

..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN INITIAL UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...MAIN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN/MOVE SLOWLY EWD
INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND
SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..SRN PLAINS...
MODELS FORECAST THAT A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER/SHIFT SWWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX THIS
PERIOD...WHILE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/LOW. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW-PROBABILITY/CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR/NE OF THE LOW NEWD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT -- OR FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/WRN N TX NEWD
INTO SWRN OK. PRESUMING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.

WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NW OF THE SURFACE
FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO KS...SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION...AND ASSOCIATED/CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

AN EVEN LESS LIKELY -- BUT STILL POSSIBLE -- SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST N OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
INTO ERN NM...WHERE LOW-LEVEL ELYS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE FLOW AS
WELL AS MORE FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LESS UNSTABLE/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

..UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO ERN KS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS E OF
SLOWLY-ADVANCING FRONT.

WITH FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...MERIDIONAL...AND ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION ON ERN FRINGES OF
STALLING UPPER LOW...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEITHER KINEMATIC NOR
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT
ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT.

.GOSS.. 05/29/2007

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