SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291812
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-291945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291812Z - 291945Z
IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFIED DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO... NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON AN INCREASINGLY EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...
DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT
WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
THROUGH 21-22Z...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL PROBABLY CONFINE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST THROUGH SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PUEBLO. BUT...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF DENVER...INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...STORMS LIKELY
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...TO THE NORTH OF STRONGER CAP...BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD.
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON.
.KERR.. 05/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
37330429 38060505 39220523 39920542 40340503 40360415
40690315 41070249 41030123 40480110 39660205 38820240
38200259 37690274 37260354 37220391
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