SWODY3
SPC AC 120713
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES...
..GREAT LAKE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS SEVERAL QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL ENSURE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...TRAILING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BENEATH MUCH
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND FOR THAT MATTER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN
DUE TO ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA/FL COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AND MOISTEN BEFORE RETURNING
NWD AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE. IT APPEARS SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM KS...NEWD INTO WI.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD 00Z. STRONGEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AND VEERING PROFILES
INTO CO MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT RISK TO STRONGER SHEARED PORTION OF COLD FRONT FROM NEB/IA
INTO WI/MI. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY ZONE FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIALLY MORE CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SEVERE
CONVECTION.
.DARROW.. 05/12/2007
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