SWOD48
SPC AC 120836
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2007
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WELL MARKED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO NCNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE DAY4 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY SW OF THE MS RIVER. EVEN
THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS KY INTO SRN OH WILL DO SO ALONG
SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. BEYOND DAY4...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE GULF STATES WHERE
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSE-MULTICELL
IN NATURE.
.DARROW.. 05/12/2007
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