SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041819
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-041945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...SE SD...WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041819Z - 041945Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
A WEAK IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH IS NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AND APPEARS TO BE AIDING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BROKEN
BOW. THIS SEEMS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ALREADY
ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE NOW LIFTING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG MAY LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
DESTABILIZING MORE SUBSTANTIALLY EASTWARD ALONG/SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DEEPENING
CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AND...THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...IN ZONE OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...TO THE NORTH OF
STRONGER CAPPING 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
AT LEAST WEAK CAPPING MAY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
..BUT THIS SHOULD FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IN AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...WHICH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY 21-22Z.
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH A PRONOUNCED
EASTERLY COMPONENT...BENEATH 40 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
.KERR.. 05/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
41389916 42939900 43279795 42969660 41559534 40549582
40859664 40689858 40859922
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