SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050241
NEZ000-KSZ000-050415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS AND CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 229...
VALID 050241Z - 050415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 229 CONTINUES.
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SLY LLJ HAS COMMENCED PER AREA PROFILERS
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH 40-45 KTS OBSERVED AT SEVERAL SITES.
RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPSWING IN TSTMS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL FOCI
TO MONITOR. ONE IS ALONG/N OF A WEAK WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM
SCNTRL NEB INTO NERN KS. SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY FORMED ALONG THIS
FEATURE AND OTHERS ARE APT TO FORM OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL NEB LATER THIS
EVE. OTHER STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM LEFT-SPLITS FROM SUPERCELLS
FARTHER SOUTH OVER CNTRL KS. YET ANOTHER GENERATION AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO.
KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE
HBR PROFILER SHOWS MORE THAN 200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WITHIN THE CORE OF
THE LLJ. GIVEN THE AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL STORMS...TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY.
.RACY.. 05/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
39040055 40120042 40389975 40839968 41790043 42829971
42849857 41469842 41239767 40889809 39419834
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