SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101548
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-101745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY AND PA THROUGH WRN VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101548Z - 101745Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL
AND ERN NY AND PA AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF VT. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA.
A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL NY FROM NEAR FORT
DRUM SWD TO JUST EAST OF BINGHAMTON THEN SWWD INTO NERN PA. FARTHER
W A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SWRN PA.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH 7 C/KM IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER.
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PA AND SRN NY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERN GREAT LAKES VORT MAX. HOWEVER...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND MAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELL
AND LINEAR STORMS.
.DIAL.. 05/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
44707266 42217348 41327528 40017712 40157819 41107777
42837669 43237596 44437528
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