Thursday, May 10, 2007

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 264

WWUS20 KWNS 101622
SEL4
SPC WW 101622
NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-110000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WESTERN VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 25 MILES WEST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EWD THROUGH NY AND PA AS WELL AS
IN WARM SECTOR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.


..DIAL/HALES

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