SWODY1
SPC AC 011959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES...
..NRN PLAINS/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST
LIKELY TO INITIATE IN WRN ND ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING IN NERN MT AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ERN MT. MCS DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN ND THIS EVENING WITH STORMS
MOVING INTO NW MN LATE TONIGHT.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF ND WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOWER-LEVELS. THIS IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS ND WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
IS FAIRLY CERTAIN. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WRN SD ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME THE WARM AIR ALOFT.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS ERN MT...NOT AS MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT BUT STRONG ENOUGH WLY FLOW STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. IN SWRN AND SCNTRL ND...A FEW OF THE
SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINATION
CURRENTLY EXISTS. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST AN MCS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL WHICH WOULD SUSTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..SERN STATES...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN STATES WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS ERN GA EXTENDING WNWWD INTO NRN AL AND NRN
MS. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE QUITE STEEP FROM NRN AL EXTENDING SEWD TO
NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL. THIS ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 65 TO 75 F
SHOULD PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER PULSE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
..CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES...
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A
TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS SCNTRL CO EXTENDING SWD INTO NM WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE PRESENT WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT.
..NW AR...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF UPPER-LOW...SEE MCD
1341.
.BROYLES.. 07/01/2007
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