MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1342

ACUS11 KWNS 012001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012000
MTZ000-WYZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MT...FAR N-CNTRL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012000Z - 012100Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE-BASED TSTM
INITIATION BECOMES LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. ONE APPEARS TO BE ENTERING THE WRN DAKOTAS AND
LIKELY AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR LWT TO
GGW. A SECONDARY IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE OVER WRN MT/NRN ID. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE BELT MTNS SEWD TOWARDS THE BIG HORN
MTNS. IN ADDITION...CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED
ALONG AN WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM 20 S LWT TO
60 NW MLS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO SERVE AS A TSTM INITIATION ZONE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODEST
INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...AND THIS WILL INCREASE WITH NEARLY UNOBSTRUCTED DAYTIME
HEATING CONTINUING ACROSS SERN MT. LATEST VAD PROFILER FROM BIL
DEPICTS WEAK ELY FLOW UP TO 1 KM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT /WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS/...FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.GRAMS.. 07/01/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

45720964 46171083 46951093 47411018 47550962 47630862
47470754 46980683 45700580 44670598 44240724

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