SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052012
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-052215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY AND NRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...
VALID 052012Z - 052215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487
CONTINUES.
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTN HAVE
EVOLVED INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR BAND ACROSS SCNTRL NY AND
NRN PA. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE EXISTS ALONG THE PA/NY
BORDER...JUST EAST OF KBGM. THIS PART OF THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME
ALIGNED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WNWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVERGENCE HAS REMAINED SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
DRIVE NEW UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND WILL BE GREATEST
OVER EXTREME NERN PA AND SERN NY APPROACHING THE KMSV REGION BY 21Z.
FARTHER W...TAIL END OF THE LINE WAS SETTLING SWD INTO REGIONS
ALREADY CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED/STABILIZED BY EARLY DAY TSTM
COMPLEX...NOW MOVING SWD TO ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THESE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SWD TO ALONG/S OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM NEW CASTLE-DUBOIS-WILLIAMSPORT.
ELSEWHERE...OTHER SMALL TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JUST SE OF KBUF. THESE
STORMS MAY POSE A BRIEF HAIL OR DMGG WIND THREATS.
.RACY.. 07/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
41687438 42687440 42947453 43257266 43857054 43427050
42577091 41907128 41607197 41437296 41317430
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