SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052012
NMZ000-AZZ000-052145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ/SW NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052012Z - 052145Z
..STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AND OVER
THE DIVIDE IN SW NM. ISOLD MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
AS THEY MOVE S/SW INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTN...
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS ACROSS SRN
AZ. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TUCSON SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 45
DEGREES F...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z OBSERVATION OF 23. LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DEWPOINTS THIS AFTN ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
ACROSS SRN AZ. COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IS HIGHER THIS AFTN. WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL A
WEAK VORTICITY MAX ACROSS SW NM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SERN NM THIS AFTN. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR.
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...GIVEN MODIFIED 12Z TUCSON RAOB. THIS
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG...SO STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
COLLAPSING STORMS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED THIS AFTN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
.TAYLOR.. 07/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
31451156 33051186 36291040 36420895 35780815 33230765
32150770 31680803 31160905
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