DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301623
SWODY1
SPC AC 301620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

..NORTHEAST...
ASCENT ACROSS DEEP-LAYER FONTAL ZONE...NOW EXTENDING FROM NERN NY TO
NRN ME...WAS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX SITUATED ACROSS ERN CANADA. MORE FOCUSED FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING STRONG TSTM NOW TRACKING
EWD OVER WRN ME. WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AHEAD OF
THIS PARTICULAR CELL...FROM NRN NH INTO WRN ME...AND FORCING/SHEAR
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...COULD ENHANCE STORM SCALE PROCESSES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL BOW ECHO AS
HEATING AND MIXING WEAKEN CIN NOW OVER CENTRAL ME.

GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG HEATING AND MODEST
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE RANGE
OF 6-7 C/KM...MLCAPE VALUES WILL PROBABLY MAX OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S F. AS INHIBITION IS
OVERCOME AND FRONT SETTLES SEWD...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ENSUE. AS USUAL...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SHEAR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL ZONE...AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE FROM A COUPLE OF
THE MORE ROBUST TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/ERN NY
INTO SRN/CENTRAL ME.

..ORE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX NOTICED ON WV IMAGERY NOW OVER CENTRAL ORE
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER WITH FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTENING ATOP DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
STILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RESULTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG/BRIEFLY-SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITHIN MODEST
SHEAR.

.EVANS/GRAMS/CARBIN.. 08/30/2007

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