SWODY2
SPC AC 301653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2007
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF STATES AND CANADA THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD. MIGRATORY
TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES. MEANWHILE...
BROAD UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF AK SWD INTO THE
E-CNTRL PACIFIC WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH /NOW NEAR 39N 141W/
PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE FOCUSED FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FL PNHDL NEWD ALONG WEAK FRONT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. OTHER POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
..PACFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...A STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT
FRIDAY...SUPPORTING POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG. FRONTAL FORCING COUPLED WITH
DEEPER-LAYER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN PARTS OF WA/ORE
INTO ID AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MT.
MODERATELY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SOME TSTM ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL. SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.
.MEAD.. 08/30/2007
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