SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230021
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-230245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230021Z - 230245Z
SEVERAL LINES OF STG TSTMS OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
AROUND 25-30 KTS WHILE CONSOLIDATING. THE STRONGEST TSTMS ALONG THE
LINE/S MAY BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT ACROSS AS THEY
MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND EVENTUALLY NWRN IND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
PER THE DVN VWP DATA...AROUND 35 KTS OF BACKGROUND MID LEVEL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD
POOL OVER ERN IA /TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/ IN THE WAKE OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE LINES...AND EXISTENCE OF A MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS OVER
NRN IL /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING/ AND
ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN VECTOR
SHEAR...SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF A GUST FRONT WHILE MOVING THROUGH NRN IL. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS THAN FURTHER NORTH MAY LIMIT THE DMGG WIND
THREAT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR GREATER
ORGANIZATION AND NEED FOR A WW. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR THREAT...CELL
TRAINING ALONG E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NRN IL
/ALONG THE WI BORDER/ WILL SUPPORT HVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR.
.CROSBIE.. 08/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...
42448795 42348941 41799045 41379087 40789054 40528969
40458904 40568830 40758760 40868713 41118674 41378659
41798669
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