SEL9
SPC WW 230019
MIZ000-LMZ000-230500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
MUSKEGON MICHIGAN TO 15 MILES EAST OF FLINT MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 637...WW 638...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCS OVER LAKE MI WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SW LOWER
MI AND CONTINUE EWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CENTRAL LOWER
MI THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT MOTION
OF THE COLD POOL...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
..THOMPSON
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