SWODY1
SPC AC 100547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION TO LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST AS FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE ERN
STATES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO WY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH NERN EXTENSION
OF THIS FEATURE TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND THE SWRN
PART SHIFTING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SLOW-MOVING OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIST FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY INTO TX. A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING THE
INITIAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
..NM INTO WRN TX...
CURRENT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STREAM OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM WRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING
AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...
FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF LOCALLY
STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000 J/KG.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF NM WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER ERN NM INTO WRN TX. THE PRESENCE OF
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KT/ SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...NAMELY WHERE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM.
.MEAD/JEWELL.. 09/10/2007
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