SWODY2
SPC AC 100551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF CANADA
AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. ONE VIGOROUS
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURE WHICH MAY HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD -- ACCOMPANIED BY 100-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.
AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A WEAK
TRIPLE-POINT LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY REGION AND INTO SERN TX. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT LOW SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC NWD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION NWD TO VT/NH...WHERE MOIST WARM SECTOR IS
EXPECTED. WITH STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
TAKE ON LINEAR ORGANIZATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR...SHEAR WILL
NOT BE...AS STRONG FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
LINEARLY. THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY
OCCUR AS FAR N AS VT/NH -- WHERE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
-- SMALL SLIGHT RISK COULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.
.GOSS.. 09/10/2007
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