DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080559
SWODY2
SPC AC 080558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...AS SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY 10/12Z...MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...PRIOR FRONT LINGERING OVER
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF MAIN
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE FROM CENTRAL CO SWD INTO NRN NM...
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MARGINAL AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SRN CO AND INTO NM. WHILE
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS SRN NM...25 TO 35 KT
WLYS FROM NRN NM INTO CENTRAL CO JUXTAPOSED WITH MARGINAL /AOB 500
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ SUGGEST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

..PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST ACROSS
THIS REGION INVOF COLD FRONT -- WHICH SHOULD BE LYING W-E ACROSS NY
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT --
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK HEATING TIME.

THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY...MODERATE
FLOW -- VEERING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RELATIVELY VIGOROUS STORMS...POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRIEF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ANY THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZES.

.GOSS.. 09/08/2007

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