MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1949

ACUS11 KWNS 080615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080614
OKZ000-TXZ000-080915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK...E-CENTRAL/NERN PANHANDLE OF
TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 080614Z - 080915Z

BAND OF TSTMS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...FROM CHEROKEE-GARFIELD-ROGER MILLS COUNTIES OK INTO GRAY
COUNTY TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
ITS MESOSCALE GEOMETRY...PERHAPS INCLUDING SLGT NET SWD
DRIFT...THROUGH 9Z. RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE
COMMON...LOCALLY AROUND 2.5 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CORES. WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED FOR ASSOCIATED MAIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH TRAINING/MERGING OF CELLS
WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR FSM NWWD ACROSS OKMULGEE COUNTY OK THEN WSWWD ACROSS SRN GRADY
COUNTY TO WEAK CYCLONE NEAR HARMON/JACKSON COUNTY LINE...IN OK.
ALTHOUGH COLD POOL GENERATION WITH EXISTING CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
VERY ROBUST...IN PART BECAUSE OF VERY MOIST/NEARLY SATURATED
CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING STORMS SHOULD REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY. PRIMARY
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE LIES FARTHER N...NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
EXISTING ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT GET
PARTICULARLY STRONG...EXPECT DEEP LAYER OF WEAK-MDT CONVERGENCE TO
CONTINUE OVER THIS ZONE...EVEN AS 850 MB FLOW VEERS TOWARD WSWLY
THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. MCV IS INDICATED IN REFLECTIVITY
ANIMATIONS AND IN PROFILER/VWP STREAMLINE ANALYSES OVER NWRN OK
VICINITY ROGER MILLS/ELLIS COUNTY LINE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DRIFT
EWD PARALLEL TO AND N OF SFC BOUNDARY...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ASCENT
OF VERY MOIST AIR ABOVE SFC. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA
INDICATE PW COMMONLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...AND AS
MUCH AS 2.3 INCHES INVOF TUL...WITH 500-1500 J/KG MUCAPE IN SUPPORT
OF TSTM POTENTIAL.

.EDWARDS.. 09/08/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

35670095 36609906 36569783 36379590 36039475 35749492
35519556 35799758 35459897 35210030 35300097

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