SWODY1
SPC AC 251958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER AIR FEATURE RELEVANT TO THIS FCST WILL BE
PERSISTENT/CUT-OFF CYCLONE -- NOW DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NWWD ACROSS
NRN MS. PRIND CENTER OF VORTEX WILL PASS CLOSE TO MEM
OVERNIGHT...WHILE BEGINNING ITS NWD ACCELERATION AS DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL IN LATEST DAY-2 OUTLOOK. ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES AS
ANALYZED ON 18Z MAP INCLUDE WEAK TRIPLE-POINT LOW LOCATED INVOF
COASTAL SC/NC BORDER...WITH QUASISTATIONARY FORMER COLD FRONT SWD TO
GULF STREAM WATERS BETWEEN S FL AND BAHAMAS. WARM FRONT --
MODULATED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES IN ITS VICINITY --
EXTENDED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN ALMOST TO SERN CORNER
VA...THEN OFFSHORE. LATTER FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NWD OVER SERN VA
DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. WWD EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY COMPRISES
DIFFUSE DAMMING FRONT INVOF SC/NC BORDER INTO SRN APPALACHIANS.
INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NWWD FROM LOW PAST SOP AND ACROSS
S-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NC.
..ERN NC...
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL ATTM...BUT IS
NONZERO E OF INVERTED TROUGH AND INVOF WARM FRONT. THIS IS RELATED
TO PRESENCE OF SOME LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE N-NE OF SFC
LOW...POTENTIAL FOR RIGHTWARD DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO ENHANCED SRH...AND PRESENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOR STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS. WEAK
BUOYANCY AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
BETTER ORGANIZED THREAT. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137 FOR MORE
SPECIFIC NEAR-TERM DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION.
.EDWARDS.. 10/25/2007
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