SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251938
NCZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251938Z - 252115Z
SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE REMNANT WEDGE FRONT. RELATIVELY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...BETWEEN A COASTAL TROUGH AND THE REMNANT
WEDGE FRONT ABOUT 2 COUNTIES INLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-750
J/KG. LOCAL VWP/S SHOW RATHER WEAK FLOW S OF THE WEDGE FRONT...WITH
A NARROW ZONE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT
AND THE NW EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. STORMS FORMING TO
THE S WILL DRIFT NWD AND MAY DEVELOP TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WHILE CROSSING THE ZONE OF ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR
IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL/ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.THOMPSON.. 10/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
35007677 34667752 34037824 34087859 34657866 35257804
35657730 35607689 35207665
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