DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

603
WOUS40 KWNS 170924
PWOSPC
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-171730-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FROM EASTERN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS TODAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS ITS
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY...DRAWING A BROAD PLUME OF
WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...THE OZARKS AND THE LOW TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND PRODUCE
STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL
ALSO EXIST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SURFACE
LOW AND JET STREAM WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..STEPHEN CORFIDI/STORM PREDICTION CENTER.. 10/17/2007

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