MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2087

ACUS11 KWNS 170907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170907
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-171100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OK...CENTRAL/ERN KS...SERN
NEB...SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170907Z - 171100Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH ARE FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS
BROAD SWATH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH SUNRISE...PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN SERN NEB AND N-CENTRAL OK. THIS WILL INCLUDE MCS MOVING
NEWD FROM NERN PORTIONS WW 706 AND SERN PORTIONS WW 707. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS N-CENTRAL OK. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY
CONDITIONAL FOR ANOTHER 4-6 HOURS...BUT INFLOW MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SFC BASED TO SUPPORT SOME PROBABILITIES WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS OVER WRN/NRN OK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING ROBUSTLY TO REGION FROM S-N...WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 60S F COMMON ACROSS SRN OK...LOW 60S NRN OK AND S-CENTRAL
KS. BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT REGION
AS MOIST/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO OFFSET NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC
STABILIZATION TENDENCY NEAR SFC...MAINTAINING OR INCREASING THETAE.
THIS WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED VERY NEAR SFC OVER
OK PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. BROAD
40-50 KT LLJ...ANALYZED FROM W-CENTRAL TX TO S-CENTRAL KS...WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED ALONG WITH 0-3 KM SRH...FOR ANY
TSTMS ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED NEAR SFC. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES ARE FCST FROM E-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK...MRGL FOR
SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION. PRIND BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO NEB AND
MO...BUT ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME...SUPPORTING STG/ISOLD SVR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.EDWARDS.. 10/17/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

35799853 40609825 40279561 37469292 36349459 34999784

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