DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110528
SWODY2
SPC AC 110527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
ERN STATES...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE SWRN STATES. IN THE NORTHEAST A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NWD INTO
MAINE WITH THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING SWD OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRESENCE OF ERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE A
LONG FETCH OF NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MAINTAIN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH OVER
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SELY ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE TX COAST AS ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST.

..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

OWING TO A PERSISTENT INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF...QUALITY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HOWEVER...SLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF
MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FROM TX THROUGH OK AND KS.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN KS WITHIN PLUME
OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF WRN TX INTO SWRN KS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MIXING WEAKENS CAP.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND MUCAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH
ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DIAL.. 10/11/2007

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