SWODY3
SPC AC 110741
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...
..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREAS...
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN GULF WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR OPTIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THIS PERIOD AND THIS
COULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW EAST OF LEE LOW WILL MAINTAIN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE EML SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED
TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET WILL ADVANCE EWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT
ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT
SPREADS EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND.
OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS
NEB WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ATTENDING STRENGTHENING
SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
.DIAL.. 10/11/2007
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