SWODY2
SPC AC 251653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2007
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRADE ONE CUT-OFF LOW FOR
ANOTHER...WHILE MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS GENERALLY
UNSUITABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR OVER CONUS. POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH --INITIALLY TRAILING SWWD FROM UPPER LOW OVER FAR
NRN SASK -- SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION. ITS PLACE
IN W-CENTRAL CANADIAN MEAN TROUGH WILL BE TAKEN BY SHORTWAVE NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN YUKON. THIS
PERTURBATION WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS/NRN MN BY END OF
PERIOD...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN PLAINS AND LS
REGION. IN TURN...THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD/NEWD EJECTION AND
WEAKENING OF PERSISTENT/CUT-OFF LOW NOW DRIFTING NWWD ACROSS MS.
MEANWHILE...LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE CA FROM SWRN PORTION OF
SYNOPTIC TROUGH...THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS NERN PACIFIC.
AT SFC...EJECTION/OPENING OF SERN CONUS MID/UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
CORRESPONDING...DEEPLY-OCCLUDED SFC CYCLONE NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI.
SFC WARM SECTOR MAY RETROGRADE INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF MID-ATLANTIC
AS WARM FRONT -- NOW INVOF NC COAST -- LIFTS NWD.
..ERN CONUS...
RICH WARM SECTOR MOISTURE AND SUBTLE DIURNAL WARMING MAY OFFSET WEAK
MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING
SFC-BASED TSTMS WITHIN BROADER PRECIP PLUME...FROM PORTIONS FL NNEWD
ACROSS CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOW/INHIBIT DIABATIC SFC HEATING...BUT SBCINH SHOULD BE
SMALL. PRIND STRONGEST MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VECTORS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING PERTURBATION WILL REMAIN W OF
WARM SECTOR. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKER SHEAR WHERE
SFC-BASED PARCELS ARE LIKELY...AND BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...INTERMITTENT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
FARTHER NW ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OH VALLEY...PERHAPS
AS FAR NW AS LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. MID/UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE
ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF EJECTING TROUGH...ATOP ELEVATED WAA
CONVEYOR...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT GEN
THUNDER POTENTIAL.
.EDWARDS.. 10/25/2007
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