SWODY1
SPC AC 011229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT THU NOV 01 2007
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
ONE EXCEPTION BEING FL WHERE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF T.S. NOEL OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER EXCEPTION
IS ALONG A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE EAST AND MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM MT LATER TODAY AS THE NEXT
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS.
..FL/SOUTHEAST COAST...
T.S. NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD THEN NEWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TODAY WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REACHING THE FL PENINSULA. RELATIVELY STRONG AND PERSISTENT E TO
NELY WINDS AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA BUT OVERALL THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN POOR
LAPSE RATES. CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM OVER LAND...AND A FEW TSTMS COULD ALSO COME ASHORE
ALONG FL E COAST.
OTHER STORMS INCREASING WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ALIGNED
WITH THE GULF STREAM MAY APPROACH NC OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...OVERALL PROBABILITY OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER MOST
LAND AREAS.
.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 11/01/2007
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