SWOD48
SPC AC 010823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT THU NOV 01 2007
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND...THIS IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING UPPER
SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS SEASON FOR MANY
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK
PLATEAU MONDAY...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOISTURE RETURN EMANATING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BE LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE. AND...WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE ANYTHING BEYOND A RELATIVELY
MINOR SEVERE THREAT AT BEST. THEREAFTER...STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD INTRUSION SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT THURSDAY.
.KERR.. 11/01/2007
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