SWODY1
SPC AC 101301
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH A DOMINANT NRN STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID ATLANTIC...AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM FROM CA INTO THE SRN ROCKIES
AND NW MEXICO. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WA
COAST ATTM...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 140
W. A SWATH OF SCATTERED CUMULONIMBI ACCOMPANIES THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
JET...AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A FEW STRIKES TO THE W OF
WA/ORE. EXPECT THIS REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY TO SPREAD INLAND
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE WA COAST TO THE W OF THE CASCADES.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE W/NW
GULF...AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD INLAND ACROSS S/SE TX
AND WRN LA NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THOUGH LARGER SCALE
PROCESSES SUGGEST LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND INSOLATION MAY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
..MID MS VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY...
THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS A SEPARATE SRN STREAM TROUGH
FROM CA TO AZ/NM...WILL INDUCE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND A SLY LLJ
ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WAA
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...FOCUSED IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM WY AND THE DAKOTAS...WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. A FEED OF 55-60 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM
TX/OK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
.THOMPSON/LEVIT.. 11/10/2007
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