SWODY1
SPC AC 011508
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT THU NOV 01 2007
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE AN ACTIVE NRN STREAM...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH TODAY...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE
AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS/ERN STATES. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FL
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL.
..ECENTRAL/SERN FL...
OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF
T.S. NOEL WILL MOVE NE-SW ACROSS ECENTRAL/SERN FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDING INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS. FURTHER
NORTH...MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON THE 12Z TLH/TPA SOUNDINGS AND
DRYING ON WV IMAGERY WILL SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NERN
PORTION OF THE STATE.
..OUTER BANKS OF NC...
DESPITE SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA
TODAY /PER THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF
AN UPPER TROUGH...LACK OF INSTABILITY AND NWLY WINDS /SUSTAINING
CONVERGENCE OVER THE GULF STREAM/ SHOULD PRECLUDE MOISTURE
ADVECTION/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -35 DEG C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ALBERTA THIS MORNING WILL
SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MT/WRN ND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MINOR AMT OF INSTABILITY...DRY LOW LEVELS
SUPPORTED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TSTMS.
.CROSBIE/KIS/HALES.. 11/01/2007
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