SWODY1
SPC AC 051624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST MON NOV 05 2007
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH...
..OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH...
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PROGRESSING ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE U.S. TODAY. AHEAD OF
WHICH...SEASONABLY MILD SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE MID
SOUTH. STRONG WLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WAA AND ELEVATED
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OH RIVER VALLEY/KY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH
MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR...MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL DESPITE
MEAGER MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG.
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...LIKELY ROOTING IN OR NEAR THE
SURFACE...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO THE MID
SOUTH WHERE HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY OVERCOME WEAK CAP.
MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN PAINTING QPF ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS ALSO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AFTER 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE NAMKF AND THE RUC INDICATE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG
AFTER 21Z OVER SWRN KY/FAR WRN TN. GIVEN AMOUNT OF LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION /40-50 KT SFC-6 KM AND 150+
M2/S2 SFC-1 KM SRH/...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT WLY STEERING COMPONENT
FOR STORMS TO AVOID BEING UNDERCUT TOO QUICKLY BY SURFACE COLD
FRONT...SEVERE POTENTIAL WARRANTS SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
STORMS DO INDEED BECOME SURFACE-BASED.
.EVANS/BOTHWELL.. 11/05/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment