SWODY3
SPC AC 100722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
PREDICTABILITY OF THE UPR FLOW REGIME DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY ON
MONDAY. THE MULTI-STREAM PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH FASTEST FLOW RELEGATED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF IMPULSES
WITHIN THE TWO SRN-MOST BRANCHES. THE LEAD WAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO
TX ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY WHILE THE UPSTREAM UPR LOW DROPS SEWD...PROBABLY HANGING BACK
IN NWRN MEXICO SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF/GFS. A SEPARATE IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY.
AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD IN TANDEM WITH
THE NRN STREAM WAVE WILL REACH THE MIDWEST...OZARKS...AND W TX BY
12Z TUE. CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE OVER NRN
MEXICO OR NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT
BY 12Z TUE DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPSTREAM MEXICAN WAVE.
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AFTN. THOUGH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM TX NEWD INTO SWRN MO...THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO BE RELATIVELY WARM IN WAKE
OF THE LEAD WAVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING. AS A RESULT...THOUGH
SPORADIC CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM
CNTRL/WRN TX NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST...ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED ATTM.
.RACY.. 11/10/2007
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